PAY GROWTH PROSPECTS SUBDUED

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) have warned that the outlook for wage growth and the squeeze on pay is likely to last for over a decade.

 Their analysis of the Autumn Statement, based on figures supplied by the OBR, indicates that workers would earn less in real wages in 2021 than they did in 2008. Over the next four years, lower income families will be the biggest losers, with the poorest third likely to experience a fall in income.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, commented: ”We have seen no increase in average incomes so far and it does not look like we are going to get much of an increase over the next four or five years either.”

The “outlook for living standards and for the public finances has deteriorated pretty sharply over the last nine months.”

Real average earnings are forecast to rise under 5% over the next five years, 3.7% lower than the figure projected in March.

Issued by: Enable Independent Financial Life Planners • 
25c North Street, Bishops Stortford, Herts CM23 2LD • Telephone: 01279 755950 - Fax: 01279 657339
Enable Independent Financial Life Planners is a trading style of Enable Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It is important always to seek independent financial advice before making any decision regarding your finances. If you would like any assistance, please contact us.
NOTHING CONTAINED IN THE ARTICLES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS GIVING INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL ADVICE 

MARKETS: (DATA COMPILED BY THE OUTSOURCED MARKETING DEPARTMENT)

Given the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the USA Presidential election, on November 8th, the global equity markets reacted surprisingly serenely.

After an initial knee-jerk reaction south, most indices recovered well. Here in the UK, the FTSE100 had risen to 6,911 at one stage only to drop off 2.45% at the close of the month finishing at 6,783.8. The wider FTSE250 trod water, ending at 17,545.75, up a marginal 0.01%, whilst the junior AIM market slipped 0.39% to finish at 819.00.

More importantly, the American markets reacted well to Trump’s triumph with observers and investors anticipating a bullish increase in infrastructure investment. The Dow Jones gained 5.41% to 19,123.58 and the technology based Nasdaq adding 2.59% to end at 5,323.68.

Mainland Europe saw the Eurostoxx50 drift off 0.12% to 3,051.61, whilst the Japanese Nikkei225 saw a robust increase of 5.07%, closing November out at 18,308.48.

On the foreign exchanges, Sterling recovered some of the ground lost in October, rising against the greenback to $1.25 for a 2.46% monthly lift and to €1.18 against the Euro to show a 6.3% gain. The US Dollar also strengthened against the Euro to $1.06, a 3.6% rise.

Oil, as measured by the Brent Crude benchmark, had another volatile month, falling as low as $44.43 a barrel early in the month, but rebounding strongly on the last day of November to $50.47, as both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, such as Russia, finally agreed a cut in production of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from OPEC and 600,000 bpd from non-OPEC producers. The Black gold now stands 35.38% higher than at the close of last year.

Gold remained unloved, given the volatility of other markets. The precious metal lost 8.13% in the month, closing out November at $1,172.89 at troy ounce.

Issued by: Enable Independent Financial Life Planners • 
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Enable Independent Financial Life Planners is a trading style of Enable Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It is important always to seek independent financial advice before making any decision regarding your finances. If you would like any assistance, please contact us.
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GDP GROWTH AND BUSINESS INVESTMENT HOLD UP WELL

Research from the ONS shows that business investment following the Brexit vote was up 0.9% on the figure for the second quarter. Although this is positive news, the ONS pointed out that many of these investment decisions could have been taken before polling day. Business investment figures have held up well.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter grew by 0.5%, helped by export growth and stronger consumer spending. Taken with the encouraging data on investment, these figures show the economy expanding broadly in line with its historic average.

Analysis of the data underlines the importance of the huge services sector that underpins the UK’s continued economic growth. Services increased by 0.8% in the third quarter, fuelled by the continued strength in performance of the British high street. By contrast, the manufacturing, agriculture and construction sectors are all contracting.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecast that the economy will grow by 1.4% in 2017, down from the 2.2% it predicted in March. Some think it likely that the strength of the economy will diminish as inflation rises, wages stagnate and the path to Brexit becomes clearer.

Issued by: Enable Independent Financial Life Planners • 
25c North Street, Bishops Stortford, Herts CM23 2LD • Telephone: 01279 755950 - Fax: 01279 657339
Enable Independent Financial Life Planners is a trading style of Enable Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It is important always to seek independent financial advice before making any decision regarding your finances. If you would like any assistance, please contact us.
NOTHING CONTAINED IN THE ARTICLES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS GIVING INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL ADVICE

RETAIL SALES SOAR AS WEATHER TURNS COLDER

Retail sales soared in October as the weather turned more wintry, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Retail sales volumes increased 7.4% from the previous year, the figures represented the highest growth rate seen since 2002, beating Reuters forecasts of 5.3%.

 The more inclement weather favoured warmer clothing sales and the end of the month saw buoyant Halloween trade, which further boosted supermarket sales of the desired regalia. The largest contribution to growth came from non-store retail offerings, including mail order, market stalls and, crucially, internet-only retailers including Amazon.

In October, average weekly spending online was £1bn, a massive increase of 26.8% on October 2015. According to Kate Davies, Senior Statistician at the ONS, October saw: “...the strongest growth in internet sales seen in five years.”

In its monthly sales snapshot, figures from online retail body IMRG indicated that home goods also performed well last month. With spending up 24% year on year, the report highlighted: “This could have been spurred by a deteriorating pound, with people more focused on domestic home improvements rather than spending on holidays abroad – which have become a lot more expensive since the Brexit vote.”

Commenting on the strength in online sales, Managing Director at IMRG, Justin Opie, commented: “...a 5-year high for basket values and the likelihood of increased site traffic as people start researching in advance of Black Friday seems to have offset any negative impact. In recent years Black Friday has become an incredibly important period for determining a retailer’s success at the peak time of year, so retailers will hope that higher basket values can be sustained over the coming few weeks.”

Issued by: Enable Independent Financial Life Planners • 
25c North Street, Bishops Stortford, Herts CM23 2LD • Telephone: 01279 755950 - Fax: 01279 657339
Enable Independent Financial Life Planners is a trading style of Enable Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It is important always to seek independent financial advice before making any decision regarding your finances. If you would like any assistance, please contact us.
NOTHING CONTAINED IN THE ARTICLES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS GIVING INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL ADVICE

Business mortgages

Enable’s experienced IFA’s in Bishops Stortford help many individuals with their personal financial planning and many clients also manage small or medium sized businesses that sometimes form part of the plan. It is interesting to note that recently business mortgage enquiries for SMEs more than doubled on the same period from last year, according to data form the National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers (NACFB).

This increase in commercial mortgage enquiries follows the NACFB’s annual results which revealed that £5.2 billion of commercial mortgage business was written in the year ending 30th June 2016, up by more than half (55 per cent) on the previous year. Many of the applicants they say came from a range of businesses such as restaurants, bars and other consumer-facing enterprises, that could be seen as a renewed vote of confidence for the high street, inevitably London powered the growth with nearly two thirds of enquiries (64 per cent) coming from the capital.

Paul Goodman, chairman of the NACFB says that appetite for commercial mortgage finance is a good indicator of small business confidence as it shows firms are confident enough to commit to the long term. ‘Last month we saw a huge uplift in enquiries from a variety of businesses – ranging from publicans and smaller retailers to hairdressers and restaurants – so it’s starting to feel like the SME community has got over any Brexit-related nerves,’ he adds. ‘While some of those businesses will also be looking to avoid steep commercial rents, especially in the capital, the confidence to take out a commercial mortgage bodes well for the future.’

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.

http://smallbusiness.co.uk/smes-unprepared-brexit-turbulence-2535512/

Issued by: Enable Independent Financial Life Planners • 
25c North Street, Bishops Stortford, Herts CM23 2LD • Telephone: 01279 755950 - Fax: 01279 657339
Enable Independent Financial Life Planners is a trading style of Enable Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It is important always to seek independent financial advice before making any decision regarding your finances. If you would like any assistance, please contact us.
NOTHING CONTAINED IN THE ARTICLES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS GIVING INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL ADVICE

When can you draw your pension?

Making sure you have your pension in place is all part of the financial planning Enable’s IFA’s in Bishop’s Stortford like to offer.  Despite the recent confirmation of the triple lock on state pensions the government might still be preparing to increase the official state pension age to 70 for millions of people currently in their 20s. Documents produced by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)  indicating a “more aggressive” timetable on state pension age (SPA) increases than previously planned are being compiled according to  Steve Webb.

The current official SPA for people in their 20s is 68, though under the existing schedule it could be expected to rise to 69. The SPA is the youngest age someone can start receiving their state pension, and is due to rise to 66 between 2018 and 2020, to 67 between 2026 and 2028, and then to 68 between 2044 and 2046. Webb, a former pension’s minister who is now director of policy at mutual insurer Royal London, said: “The previous policy strikes a fair balance between expecting people to work longer and allowing people to enjoy a decent retirement.” “If the government is planning to force tens of millions of people to work to 68, 69 or even 70, then it should be transparent about its plans. This would be a huge shift and should be properly debated, not buried in a technical document seen only by specialists,” said Webb.

A DWP spokesperson said: “This work forms part of our research ahead of the first state pension age review. It’s important we have a clear understanding of how the current system is working for pensioners before we undertake the review.” If you want to make sure your pension is in place or encourage your children to put a pension in place Enable’s IFAs can help you look at the options.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/nov/28/pension-age-may-be-about-to-rise-again-says-former-minister

Issued by: Enable Independent Financial Life Planners • 
25c North Street, Bishops Stortford, Herts CM23 2LD • Telephone: 01279 755950 - Fax: 01279 657339
Enable Independent Financial Life Planners is a trading style of Enable Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It is important always to seek independent financial advice before making any decision regarding your finances. If you would like any assistance, please contact us.
NOTHING CONTAINED IN THE ARTICLES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS GIVING INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL ADVICE

Unheard of mortgage deals

Enable’s IFA’s in Bishop’s Stortford have helped many arrange their mortgages and until recently a 1.5% mortgage deal was virtually unheard of. But currently there are already two-year fixed deal at less than 1.5 per cent out there and some mortgage experts think there may be room for even lower rates. Ray Boulger of the independent mortgage consultant John Charcol believes that “falling gilt yields could result in a drop in fixed-rate mortgage pricing.”

Gilt yields represent the rate of interest paid on government bonds. Their rates in turn affect so-called swap rates, the cost of getting fixed-term funding on the money markets for lenders. Lenders are then using that fixed-term funding to be able to offer fixed-rate mortgages to consumers. So if gilt yields fall, swap rates will fall, meaning it will be cheaper for lenders to get funding, which should, in theory, lead to cheaper loans for us all.

Recently the UK 10-year benchmark gilt yield fell to an all-time low of 1.3 per cent and the five-year gilt yield fell to 0.67 per cent and the two-year to 0.3 per cent. Essentially the yield on both five- and 10-year gilts has fallen by nearly 40 basis points in the past month. “Yields have fallen so fast that mortgage lenders are now well behind the curve with their fixed-rate pricing, leaving scope for some significant rate cuts on fixed rates,” said Boulger, however, “Although this is good news in the short term for anyone wanting a new mortgage, the rapidly increasing global problems remain a major concern and could lead to lenders reassessing their appetite to lend in the medium term,” he warned. Enable’s IFAs can help you find the right mortgage at the right rates for you.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/how-low-can-they-go-home-loans-edge-towards-1-a6877621.html

Issued by: Enable Independent Financial Life Planners • 
25c North Street, Bishops Stortford, Herts CM23 2LD • Telephone: 01279 755950 - Fax: 01279 657339
Enable Independent Financial Life Planners is a trading style of Enable Independent Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
It is important always to seek independent financial advice before making any decision regarding your finances. If you would like any assistance, please contact us.
NOTHING CONTAINED IN THE ARTICLES SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS GIVING INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL ADVICE