Monday, 19 November 2012

It is official – the end of recession

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced late in October that the UK economy grew by 1.0% in Q3 2012, thus ending the nine month recession. This is
above the estimates of most economists who predicted a growth figure of 0.6% to be announced.

One of the major factors in this turn-around was the London Olympics, which
according to the ONS added 0.2% to the gross domestic product (GDP) figure from July to September.

Whilst this is very good news, the economy remains below the level of output seen before 2008, at the start of the financial crisis.

They also commented that the economy contracted by 6.4% between the start of 2008 and mid 2009, but has since recovered nearly half of that amount.

This quarter’s figures were also boosted, in comparison with the previous quarter, where we had additional public holidays to celebrate the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee and exceptionally bad weather, which dampened growth in this
period.

George Osborne, the Chancellor, commenting on these results on October 25th said: “There is still a long way to go, but these figures show we are on the right track. “Yesterday’s weak data from the Eurozone were a reminder that we still face many economic challenges at home and abroad.”

Given that these figures from the ONS are their initial estimate, it should be borne in mind that they can be revised higher, as happened in the last two quarters, or possibly lower in the ensuing weeks.

However, David Kern, chief economist of the British Chambers of Commerce added: “The 1.0% GDP figure for the third quarter is affected by distortions in the second quarter due to the Jubilee and Olympic ticket sales. Compared to a year earlier, the figures show that the economy is stagnant.”

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