In its Economist Forecast for Q4 2013, the business group says it expects UK GDP to amount to 2.7 per cent in 2014, up from its previous prediction of 2.2 per cent. It also revised up its 2013 outlook from 1.3 per cent to 1.4 per cent but cut the 2015 forecast from 2.5 per cent to 2.4 per cent.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy expanded by 0.8 per cent in the third quarter of the year, while recent purchasing managers’ indices suggests strong growth continued into fourth quarter. Last week, the Office for Budget Responsibility revised up its 2013 growth forecast from 0.6 per cent to 1.4 per cent and 2014’s from 1.8 per cent to 2.4 per cent.
The BCC says its revisions for 2013 and 2014 are due to the “robust growth” being seen in all the main sectors of the UK economy, a jump in household consumption and the strength of the housing market. But the rise in household consumption will moderate as personal debt levels get higher, meaning growth in 2015 will slow slightly.
BCC chief economist David Kern says: “We believe that in 2014 UK GDP will at long last move above its 2008 pre-recession level. But long term trends show we can do much better, and with the right policies in place we can expect a much stronger recovery in the second half of the decade.
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