It’s not always easy to make sense of the movement in global economies. It has been reported again that last month China’s exports and imports unexpectedly fell and its Premier has stated that China will roll out more policies to support growth while avoiding stronger stimulus. Exports declined 6.6 percent from a year before, the administration said in Beijing recently, attributing the drop partly to distortions from inflated data in early 2013 while imports fell 11.3 percent.
Asian stocks and the Australian dollar pared gains after the report added to concern that expansion in the world’s second-largest economy will deteriorate further. The Chinese government is taking steps including railway spending and tax relief to support growth while avoiding monetary measures such as cutting banks’ reserve requirements or the scale of stimulus used to counter the financial crisis in 2008. “Economic momentum may have stalled temporarily in March,” Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. but the government may wait to see how the economy responds to the latest fiscal measures before taking additional action to aid growth, said Zhang, who previously worked at the IMF .
But it is always hard to read the data. Taking into account the distortions from inflated data in 2013, exports may have increased by 5 percent to 8 percent in March from a year earlier, improving from a pace of about 3 percent in the first two months of 2014, Zhang wrote. Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC estimated “underlying export growth” at 3.7 percent in March, revising an earlier estimate of 5.2 percent after reviewing more-detailed data. If you want some independent Financial Advice to help you work out how to make sense of all the information Enable’s IFA’s are here to help.
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