Monday, 16 November 2015

Early UK rate rise?

Enable’s IFA’s in Bishop’s Stortford note that once again the Bank of England has held UK interest rates at the record low of 0.5%. Forecasts for the first change in interest rates since 2009 have again been pushed further into the future, as the outlook for global growth had weakened, which was depressing the risk of inflation. UK interest rates have now remained on hold for six-and-a-half years.


The Bank of England said, "the outlook for global growth has weakened since August."It blamed emerging market economies for that weakness, saying growth in those regions had "slowed markedly." While the Bank expects inflation to rise above its 2% target in two years, it says that risks "lie slightly to the downside" during that time period meaning inflation may not rise as quickly as the Bank forecasts.

BBC economics editor Robert Preston said, “Mark Carney gave what many would see as a bum steer in July that interest rates would be going up around the turn of the year. The implication was unambiguous: we should prepare for the end of the era of near-zero interest rates that has prevailed since early 2009.”

Other economists are saying that the latest reports indicate that the Bank of England remains relaxed over an interest rate rise. "That magic first rate rise has been kicked into the long grass once again. Only a few months ago, the Bank was saying that inflation wasn't picking up because of the low oil price. Now it's emerging markets. You have to wonder what their next reason will be," said Paul Diggle from Aberdeen Asset Management.

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Source - BBC news

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