Tuesday, 8 March 2016

The important services sector continues to flourish

In January, the closely followed Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK’s services sector, compiled by the Markit/CIPS index (CIPS), was set at 55.6, a fraction higher than the 55.5 recorded in December. Any figure above 50 indicates that output in the sector is expanding. The services sector is by far the biggest element of the UK’s economy, accounting for over 75% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).



Further reinforcing the good news surrounding the UK economy, earlier in the month CIPS reported the construction sector at 55.0 and the manufacturing sector at 52.9.

Commenting on these results Chris Williamson, the Chief Economist of CIPS said: “The three PMI surveys for January collectively point to a slight upturn in the rate of economic growth, consistent with GDP rising at a quarterly rate of 0.6% in the first quarter, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter (of 2015), if current levels are sustained.”

However, he went on to caution that: “cracks are beginning to appear in the country’s resilience to the various headwinds.

“Worries about a Chinese ‘hard landing’, financial market jitters, higher interest rates in the US, more austerity at home and the possibility of ‘Brexit’ and EU tensions have collectively pushed the business mood in the dominant service sector to its darkest for three years.”

On a more positive note, in early January, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predicted that the UK economy would grow by 2.3% in 2016. This forecast is unchanged from their previous estimate published in November.

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